Expected goals (xG) estimates the probability that a shot becomes a goal based on factors such as location, angle and shot type. It can help describe chance quality across a match, but it is a model output rather than a prediction of the exact final score. Different providers may use different models and inputs.
Use xG alongside match footage, lineups, game state and sample size. A single match can produce an unusual gap between goals and xG; over time, repeated patterns may be more informative. Never assume that a high xG number guarantees a future win.
Editorial note: This is educational content, not a guarantee of results. Verify current rules and sources independently.